This past week, you saw a dreaded, historically accurate predictor of recessions appear on the charts. There was a longer term debt yields downturn that became severe enough to cause a portion of the Treasuries yield curve to invert. What many Wall Street investors are continuously watching for is such an inverted yield curve. They are revered as accurate indicators of recessions, in particular the ones correlated with the three month yield and the 10 year yield. At the close of Friday trading, the three month Treasury yield stood at 2.459 percent at the same time as the 10 year… Read More

Another financial record has just been broken, and this one is not the kind you brag about. The United States' total consumer debt just smashed through another all-time high in January. The most recent report out of the Federal Reserve revealed that consumer borrowing rose by $17.05 billion in 2019's opening month. This latest increase stretched the category of total consumer borrowing up to a new record high of $4.03 trillion as the chart below details: This compared to January of 2018's prior high of $3.84 trillion. It equates to an eyebrow raising 5.1 percent yearly increase. These figures do not… Read More

This past week saw another ominous financial metric released. The total net worth of Americans plunged at the fastest level going back to the financial crisis in the last quarter of 2018. Falling stock market values gnawed away at Americans' collective household balance sheets. The end result was that the net worth cratered down to $104.3 trillion at the year's conclusion. This represented a sharp decline of $3.73 trillion from third quarter 2018, per the Federal Reserve's figures they released. It amounted to an eyebrow raising decline of 3.4 percent, as this chart below clearly shows: Still think the economy is… Read More

In the latest signs of slowing economic growth, very poor U.S. retail sales and wholesale inventories figures have been released showing data not consistent with a growing economy. In the past two weeks, the data emerged showing that American retail sales suffered their largest decline in over nine years back in December. Sales declined consistently across all of the metrics measured --- online, in physical stores, and even in restaurants. Analysts who studied this warned of a significant economic activity slump at the conclusion of 2018. From November to December, the retail sales declined by 1.2 percent. This marked the… Read More

Last Thursday saw yet more bad news coming out from the deteriorating American housing market. For January 2019, United States' home sales collapsed to their lowest point in over three years. Housing prices themselves ticked up just modestly. The statistics are anything but encouraging as they continue to indicate still more weakness and momentum loss within the overall important housing market. Keep in mind that this Real Estate sector is a key leading economic indicator too. The National Association of Realtors revealed the grim statistics. They stated that the critical existing home sales category declined by a sobering 1.2 percent to an… Read More